HOW TO EXTRAPOLATE A NUMBER 12
1. On a number 12, Week 29 is always sales up to the previous day for the current week.
2. Rule of thumb for accumulated totals:
a. Sun: 11%
b. Mon: 22%
c. Tue: 35%
d. Wed: 45%
e. Thurs: 60%
f. Fri: 79%
g. Sat: 100%
3. Therefore looking at this number 12 dated Thursday March 20th, we know that up to Wednesday we do 45% of our business and can extrapolate using that percentage.
4. The same formula will be used to extrapolate for individual stores or for the company. The formula is: (WTD Q)/(WTD %). For the company: 444/.45 987. This is what we are trended to do for the week. Overall the company sold 1035 Silver jeans for the week so our estimate was off by 48 units (5%). So although it isnít perfect, itís pretty close! Taking store 24 as an example: 44/.45 = 98 units. They finished with 103. Store 75: 15/.45 = 33 units. They sold 35 that week. ETC.
5. Where the extrapolating helps you out is that it enables you to be react to an outcome before its official. For example with store 75, we see their 4 weeks are a rollercoaster; 30, 43, 23, 46. We see they are projected to do 33 for the week which is down heavily on LW and below our expectation of 40. Even though they finished with 35 units, maybe with a bit more of a push they could have come closer to 40.
6. Comparing our stores projections to their last 4 weeks of trending unlocks the power of the number 12!